EMBRACE & EVOLVE

Technological change is accelerating faster than old assumptions and models predicted and AI is about to transform every industry – including fitness and wellbeing. David Minton, founder of Evolve, argues that while tech cannot replace the human foundations of wellbeing, the sector needs to embrace AI, rather than resist it

Two laws have recently been consigned to the historical paper bin due to advances in technology. Moore’s Law, coined by co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore in 1965, predicted that the number of transistors in a microchip would double every year. This foundational roadmap, which accurately charted decades of computing progress, has now been ripped up by Nvidia’s architectural innovations, which have driven a new paradigm for AI and accelerated computing. Vaughan’s Law of multimedia minimums – which holds that improvements in technology steadily raise consumers’ minimum expectations for digital experiences – is in the same wastebasket for a similar reason: AI has accelerated technological change so much that the law no longer describes reality.

Whenever markets evolve, there will be winners and losers. Suppliers and operators have a choice to carry on, as near normal as possible, or follow reality. There are some especially divisive happenings, that we could call “the great unravelling”, which are equally balanced by the opportunities.

It is June 2026 and a number of industry-defining events have taken place. Elon Musk has become the world’s first trillionaire by reimagining what is possible and reinventing the way we think about the final frontier. Alongside the IPO of SpaceX, which propelled him into unprecedented territory, Musk has seen shares in Tesla increase by more than 2,400% over the past decade, reaching $400.49.

The comparison with our own sector is stark. Peloton, which experienced meteoric growth in 2020, has seen its share price fall to $5.77, while The Gym Group – the UK’s only listed fitness company – has risen by 13.6% since 2016, with a share price of 215p. The lesson is not that fitness lacks potential, but that sectors and businesses able to harness technological change will define the future. Having recently experienced Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology, together with Autopark and Smart Summon – all controlled entirely by Tesla AI – I came away deeply impressed. The same vision-based artificial intelligence powers Optimus, Tesla’s general-purpose humanoid robot, now on display at the company’s first diner in Los Angeles. Two days immersed in the Tesla ecosystem provided my closest singularity-like experience to date. It reinforced my belief that AI must be embedded at every level of every product and service at Evolve – and across the wider physical activity sector.

That conviction has only strengthened with the launch of Claude Fable 5, Anthropic’s latest AI agent. It offers something profoundly different: work itself, delivered as a service, at extraordinary speed. The phrase “not what we have done, but what we are becoming” captures the moment.

This year also marks my 45th year in the data business, giving me a unique perspective on how technology has continually expanded horizons and increased our capacity to work. I have witnessed the transition from Rolodexes and paper files to desktop computers and floppy disks, from mainframes to graphics cards, GPS mapping, email, digital services and app development. Each technological shift has altered the way we live and work. AI represents the next leap.

Claude Fable 5 claims to be able to do a lifetime’s work in a few hours or days. It has already found faults across cybersecurity, financial and defence software – hence countries and companies have contributed to Anthropic’s annualised revenue run rate last month of US$47bn – which would give the six-year old company a valuation at their IPO of around $1 trillion.

Used responsibly, these technologies could remove friction from almost every aspect of daily life and physical activity

Used responsibly, these technologies could remove friction from almost every aspect of daily life and physical activity. Operators across our sector are already making use of tools from Google, OpenAI and Anthropic. The pace of change will only accelerate.

Evolve – both as an annual conference and as a platform for constant data collection – has become a convening space for conversations about the future of the sector. If we are serious about moving fitness from a niche provider to an essential service that meets the needs of all ages, in every community, we need fresh thinking, bold leadership and a political agenda that places health and activity at its heart.

For the new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham – and those pursuing devolution and inclusive growth – there is an opportunity. Across the UK’s 1.8 million postcodes, we have the ability to understand communities in unprecedented detail, layering health and activity data to identify need and drive meaningful change. If done well, devolution could play a transformative role in improving activity levels and the nation’s health.

There may be no universally agreed definition of wellbeing, but I propose a new “Andy’s Law”: seven pillars of health for every postcode.

The first is a healthy diet. According to the Nutrition Society, evidence-based nutrition rests on the principles of adequacy, balance, moderation and diversity.

The second is sleep. Insomnia, sleep deprivation and sleep disturbances affect significant proportions of the population, while the body continues its vital work overnight – breathing, circulating blood, regulating temperature and repairing cells.

The third is mental health. Around one in four people in the UK experiences a mental health problem each year, affecting emotional, psychological and social wellbeing, and shaping how we think, feel and act.

The fourth is community. Across those 1.8 million postcodes, strong communities combat loneliness, promote safety, enable resource sharing and improve health outcomes.

The fifth is the arts. Following the Evolve conference, we have a deeper understanding – thanks in part to Professor Daisy Fancourt’s work at UCL – of the ways in which arts and culture can transform health and wellbeing.

The sixth is nature. As many people discovered during lockdown, just 20 minutes spent outdoors can reduce stress, strengthen the immune system and act as a form of free medicine.

The seventh pillar is healthy movement. Mobility, stamina and strength make everyday life easier, while exercise itself has a positive effect on each of the other six pillars.

So, Andy, will you become Britain’s first truly pro-activity leader, championing the seven pillars of health in every postcode? A new Ministry of PH4EP – Pillars of Health for Every Postcode – could help bind communities together through a shared humanity and a renewed British can-do spirit.

We can expect singularity-like experiences to become more common as long-established laws and systems continue to be disrupted. But technological progress alone will never be enough. Good health and human relationships remain our emotional anchors. AI will not replace empathy, trust, pain, anger or ageing.

The challenge for communities, businesses and policymakers alike is to bridge the gap between digital efficiency and authentic human connection. Only then will we be truly fit for the future.